By: Lindsay Angelo, Chief Futurist, Strategist, MBA, TEDx Speaker
Part of a Future of Place series
Table of Contents
Introduction
Quick Signals
Why Tariffs, Canada?
A Quick Primer: What Are Tariffs?
Why Tariffs? Five Likely Rationales
But What About Canada?
Summary of Rationale
FAQs
Introduction
As a Futurist and dual citizen of both Canada and the U.S., I spend a great deal of time thinking about where our economies, systems, and societies are headed. Tariffs may feel like yesterday’s tactic, but they carry deep implications for tomorrow’s supply chains, sovereignty, and global dynamics.
Tariffs have long been used as an economic tool—but recently, they’ve become a flashpoint in Canada–U.S. relations. From Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs to softwood lumber and Canadian energy products, tariff announcements have sparked confusion and frustration on both sides of the border.
So if you're asking, why tariffs, Canada?—you’re not alone.
This article unpacks the full spectrum of potential reasons behind these tariffs. We’ll explore the public-facing justifications, deeper strategic aims, and even the more uncomfortable possibilities being discussed behind closed doors.
Quick Signals
Tariffs on Canada are often less about Canada and more about U.S. domestic strategy—whether economic, political, or geopolitical.
There are multiple potential rationales for tariffs that span strategic leverage through to personal agendas.
Canada remains well-positioned globally but is vulnerable due to its deep trade reliance on the U.S., making clear-eyed navigation and vision essential
A Quick Primer: What Are Tariffs?
Tariffs are essentially taxes on imports. They're often framed as a way to protect domestic industries, but in practice, they’re used for much more: leverage, signaling, national security, and sometimes—yes—politics.
For the United States, tariffs can serve dual purposes: shielding American products from foreign competition while generating tariff revenue that can be reinvested. However, the ripple effects are far-reaching, often raising costs for American consumers, squeezing American businesses, and straining relations with key trading partners.
In the context of U.S. tariffs on Canada—a country historically seen as a close ally—the motivations aren’t always straightforward.
Why Tariffs? Five Likely Rationales Behind U.S. Tariffs on Canada
1. Strategic Leverage (Negotiation Tactic)
“We’ll take a hit short-term to force better long-term trade deals.”
Tariffs are often used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. In this case, they’re less about harming Canada and more about pushing for faster or more favorable trade outcomes. This tactic was used during the Trump administration to accelerate the replacement of NAFTA with the USMCA. The imposition of additional tariffs and shifting tariff rates signaled seriousness and raised the stakes at the negotiating table.
2. Protecting Domestic Industries (and Jobs)
“We need to protect American manufacturing and rebuild strategic sectors.”
Tariffs can act as a protective shield for domestic industries under pressure from cheaper imports. By making Canadian products like aluminum and softwood lumber more expensive, the idea is to give American businesses and manufacturers breathing room to compete. It’s often positioned as defending American jobs and boosting the American market—even if Canada isn’t the main aggressor, it becomes part of a broader protectionist approach aimed at reducing trade deficits.
3. Political Signaling to Domestic Base
“We’re putting America First and standing up to foreign competition.”
Tariffs play well with certain voter blocs—especially in states hit hard by globalization. They become more than economic policy; they’re a symbolic stance. Even when applied to allies like Canada, tariffs are framed as standing up for the “little guy.” Moves like declaring a national emergency to justify tariffs, or issuing announcements from the White House, make headlines and reinforce a narrative of strength. Whether or not they’re effective economically, they serve as a powerful form of political theater.
4. National Security & Economic Decoupling
“We can’t afford to be this reliant on foreign nations—even allies.”
Sometimes tariffs are justified under the umbrella of national security—even when the connection is thin. In this view, over-reliance on other nations (including Canada) for key materials poses long-term risk. Tariffs then become part of a broader economic decoupling strategy, aimed at reshoring supply chains, reducing dependence on imports, and tightening control over border logistics, including along the southern border.
5. Corruption or Crony Capitalism
“Tariffs aren’t always about trade—they can also consolidate power and reward the few at the expense of the many.”
This lesser-discussed scenario acknowledges a harder truth: tariffs may serve political or financial interests, not just policy goals. Companies with ties to politicians may benefit from selective exemptions, favorable treatment, or policy-driven market advantages. In some cases, tariffs are used to create market chaos that insiders can profit from.
Some critics go further, suggesting that tariffs have become part of a reverse Robin Hood playbook—where populist language cloaks policies that ultimately shift economic burden downward while consolidating wealth and power at the top. In this framing, tariffs aren't just economic tools, but instruments of control, used to inflate prices for everyday people while rewarding aligned industries and suppressing dissent. When tied to executive overreach or narrative control, they begin to resemble a page out of the authoritarian economic playbook.
While difficult to prove, this narrative is gaining traction in public discourse, especially when tariff decisions appear erratic or politically motivated.
But What About Canada? Can It Weather the Storm?
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Canada brings a lot to the table—strong trade agreements, global relationships, and a reputation for fairness. But it’s not immune. With over 70% of its exports going to the U.S., even modest tariffs can ripple across industries, jobs, and entire regional economies.
Canada often lacks the retaliatory leverage to fight back with equal force, and key sectors—like autos, dairy, and lumber—can be hit hard. In response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, Canada introduced its own Canadian tariffs—a series of retaliatory tariffs aimed at leveling the playing field.
Still, the short-term pain of protectionist policies is real. Understanding the “why” behind these moves is critical for navigating not just the headlines, but the broader economic consequences.
As for how might Canada respond long term, read more on the future of Canada here.
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FAQs
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Tariffs on Canadian goods have both symbolic and economic consequences. In the short term, they can disrupt cross-border supply chains, drive up costs for Canadian producers, and depress export volumes—particularly in vulnerable sectors like steel, aluminum, energy, and agriculture. They also inject uncertainty into the broader trade relationship, prompting Canada to seek greater diversification and trade resilience. In the long run, tariffs may accelerate efforts toward self-sufficiency, innovation, and alternative market expansion—but not without economic strain along the way.
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Retaliatory tariffs are duties imposed in direct response to tariffs from another country. Canada implemented a series of retaliatory tariffs after the U.S. imposed percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, affecting goods ranging from metal to maple syrup.
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Tariff revenue is collected by the U.S. government and can, in theory, be used to support domestic programs or offset costs. However, the real-world impact often hits American consumers through higher prices, reducing purchasing power.
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See the article above.
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See this article.
About the Author
Lindsay Angelo is an award-winning Futurist, Strategist Consultant, TEDx Speaker and MBA. She is also the founder of Futurist-in-50-days, supporting impact-driven professionals, teams and organizations in learning to think and lead into the future. She's advised Fortune 500 companies, entrepreneurs, think tanks, and celebrities - all the while creating a nomadic lifestyle rooted in travel, family and community. Named a Woman to Watch and Global Innovation Leader, Lindsay's delivered over 100+ keynotes and has worked with organizations including lululemon, Unilever, the LEGO Group, Snapchat and the Human Potential Institute. Her experiences culminate in what she refers to as her sweet spot - where strategy, innovation and foresight intersect, where the rational meets the emotive, where facts meet insights and where logic meets creativity.
